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At the Close. See you in September, enjoy the rest of August.

I am calling it a day here, as there is very little I can add at this point with respect to what we are seeing in the markets, and I definitely do not want to waste your time reading things that do not add value to your trading.

Am going for a 3-week holiday period flat, having squared the last EUR/JPY short with some pips, perhaps not the best idea as the m/t position we built up earlier should bring decent results, but anyway, I do want to disconnect from the markets a bit, and I hope that when I'm back I see them a bit more 'normal'.

There are many things intraday that I do not like despite the fact that this long overdue correction suits me perfectly over the long-term horizon, and I do expect more to come.

The thing is that when liquidation mode shifts to aberration or strong aberration you never know what's behind the move, and not knowing exactly what's behind one of the biggest daily collapses in EUR/USD is something should make a lot of people think.

I do not trust the current rally (USD) vs the low yielders, nor do I feel we'll break sub 1.48 this time, for a correction is first needed. However, given the magnitude of the drop and the speed with which it has been seen, I do not have a real clue of what to tell you it's ahead... But we'll find out in September.

Alright, everyone, thank you very much for being there in this first period of PIPmania.com, I hope you've enjoyed and profited from it, and I'll see you all again on September. Have a nice August holiday break if you're taking it. Bye 4 now.

Some levels to think of in EUR/USD

Now that there seems to be no stop for the USD rally, it is important to look at daily levels to get better references.

Former top @ 1.4960 should be a magnet to prices now ahead of the Fib Fan level 1.48. A break below is not likely on a first attempt.

Trade Idea (m/t): EUR/JPY - target met (close) - Open

Nice printing of 165.50 target for a final gain of +392 pips on my half short on the trade.

Since this now has legs for 162-163, am opening shorts again @ 165.60, would add @ the hit of 100 pips higher up to 168.60, stop on all 171, target 162 for now. This is a m/t - l/t trade again.

Quote of the Day

"Pain makes man think. Thought makes man wise. Wisdom makes life endurable."

Stretching it out a bit more...

The USD-bull liquidation doesn't seem to have an ending vs the Europeans, as we hit new fresh intraday highs with EUR/USD @ 1.5120, USD/CHF @ 1.0750 and Cable around 1.9235.

JPY crosses edging lower, with EUR/JPY approaching our m/t target point, to confirm a good result. GBP/JPY right now sitting at the key dynamic support line @ 210.95, a break lower sees the extreme OS level 210.25, confirming the break of the daily support line, the same line that was broken 3 days ago but that in a very good bear trap we saw prices rising back up before the good one sell-off comes...

JPY crosses selling-off

EUR/JPY is moving closer to its hourly extreme OS level 165.90, while GBP/JPY is close to its dynamic support line @ 210.95 after a new round of sell-off, which should have more legs from here to even lower levels.

Again, August is proving to be a very bad month for the carry cows...

Beware of the magnet line in USD/JPY @ 109.15 today, a sell-off to that level looks increasingly likely.

Table of Technical Extreme Levels @ 08:40GMT

PAIR	TIMEFRAME	EXTREME OS	EXTREME OB	CURRENT
EUR/USD	30m	1.5123	1.5325	1.5161
GBP/USD	30m	1.9226	1.9431	1.9277
USD/JPY	30m	109.10	110.18	109.91
USD/CHF	30m	1.0609	1.0765	1.0737
AUD/USD	60m	0.8911	0.9122	0.8913
EUR/JPY	60m	166.06	168.73	166.70
GBP/JPY	60m	210.64	214.08	211.88
EUR/CHF	30m	1.6222	1.6321	1.6280
EUR/GBP	60m	0.7831	0.7932	0.7864

* All valid through the next 4-7 candle closings.

Today's Pivot Points

                     S3           S2          S1         PIVOT      R1          R2          R3      
EUR/USD     1.5063    1.5186    1.5256    1.5379    1.5449    1.5572    1.5642    
USD/JPY     108.46    108.80    109.11    109.45    109.76    110.10    110.41    
GBP/USD     1.9274    1.9347    1.9392    1.9465    1.9510    1.9583    1.9628    
USD/CHF     1.0438    1.0480    1.0552    1.0594    1.0666    1.0708    1.0780    
USD/CAD     1.0387    1.0417    1.0473    1.0503    1.0559    1.0589    1.0645    
AUD/USD     0.8958    0.9005    0.9035    0.9082    0.9112    0.9159    0.9189    
NZD/USD     0.7026    0.7079    0.7110    0.7163    0.7194    0.7247    0.7278    
EUR/JPY     165.16    166.38    167.03    168.25    168.90    170.12    170.77    
EUR/GBP     0.7800    0.7839    0.7860    0.7899    0.7920    0.7959    0.7980    
EUR/CHF     1.6187    1.6229    1.6255    1.6297    1.6323    1.6365    1.6391 

Today's Economic Events

Time (GMT)	Country	Event	Importance-Volatility
11:00	CAD	Employment Report	4
12:30	USD	Labor data	2

 
Note: Volatility is measured from 1-5 (low-to-high) importance, depending on the volatility it can generate.

At the Open. The power of momentum.

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. August wasn't a good month last year for the Euro and it is not a good month either this year.

The unit has confirmed the mega double top @ 1.60 by collapsing (and triggering lots of stops on its way) sub-1.5280, which now has an obvious target of 1.44 from here.

Looking at daily Fibonacci Fan lines, the unit has broken the 50% Fan line straight forward without even a simple pullback overnight @ 1.5250. The calculation is made using last August's lows and the first hit of 1.60. The first fan line was coming in @ 1.57 when broken, and has completed a 8-day straight decline since then. The 61.8% Fan line is coming in @ 1.48, perhaps the last support for the perma-EUR bulls, but in any case, a viable target for shorts, which will not care much what happens there as they will be cashing in nice pips.

Intraday wise, as you know, I really am not comfortable with this market so am basically out (got stopped out in USD/CHF shorts and that's all for me), looking for things to slow down a bit and return to normality. First selling level which offers good odds is 1.5290, so will wait to see if that level prints, aiming at a pullback to the broken neckline before direction sets in. Anyway, there still are too many 'suspicious' things that don't make me feel comfortable with the direct-USD pairs, so staying out is fine for me.

Nice EUR/JPY collapse after breaking support line @ 167.80 back down and reversing the bullish MA's cross into bearish. As I said, the real technical money is in the JPY crosses these days, so there's no need to look for anything else.

Welcome to my real-time Forex Market show, hope you'll enjoy it.