PIPmania.com - Hedge Fund Expertise for your FOREX trading

At the Open. Keep swimming with the techs.

GBP/USD test of the rising uptrend line + 200SMA in the 1hr chart in the low 1.61's is putting all carry trades at risk, as techs weigh on prices again. EUR/USD is testing steep dynamic support @ 1.2730, and I feel it will hold for now. If the unit can break 1.2770, it will be trading above resistance line, adn the dynamic line @ 1.30 (next resistance) could be tested (but watch Cable first holding above 1.61). USD/CHF is just about to meet its last Fibo resistance around 1.1545 after spiking from 1.1390 key static level. SHorts around current levels don't look bad positionally, as long as 1.1630 is not broken (watch EUR/CHF key dynamic level @ 1.4770).

With month-end coming up and US data next, I am today keeping a very low profile and will not take any positions. The private area has been updated with all the latest information and I'll leave it as it is until Monday.

I will step by again around closing time to make a weekly closing post (in audio format).

One more news for the private area trialists (you can still join, room is open until Nov.24), starting this weekend, I'll be posting a WEEKLY GLOBAL MARKETS REPORT, covering all major markets with detailed analysis, charts and my trading views. Enjoy the rest of the day (I'd suggest you take it very light, could get wild from 08:30EST).

At the Close. And techs continue their way...

AM finishing the day very alte in Europe but I honestly don't have anything to add to what I've been saying throughout the day. Very technical moves, with:

- USD/CHF bouncing off fast from the broken downtrend line to hit 1.1450 again, and then again fall towardskey static 1.1375 level. If that level is broken again, we could see the 1.1290 magnet coming into play.

- EUR/USD has finally broken the support line @ 1.2840 and it did not take long to see 1.2750. 1.2850-60 is the key resistance line (2 lines converge there), and it would need a EUR/JPY above 127.50 to have the momentum to break it.

- GBP/USD tried to break past the upper line of the channel towards the projected line, but so far has failed, and we are in no man's land as 2 forces in opposite direction (channel + MA's) are fighting hard in the 1hr chart. OH, and I almost forgot, now that I talk about Cable, don't think that I did not know that today's highs were around the 61.8% FIbo retracement of the last downleg from 1.7520 to 1.5265 @ 1.6655, but you know what? having the projected line of the uptrend channel also there was more than enough to concentrate on the level, don't you think? ;-)

I can say that perhaps today has been the most profitable day in many weeks when it comes to techs, so am saying good night with the hope that you catched some of those pips that were made available to you today. Tomorrow is month-end, and having done a decent job so far in the private area I'll surely take the day with a very low profile. Bye 4 now.

EUR/USD hits key line

EUR/USD has hit the uptrend line off the recent lows around 1.23 (@ 1.2825) and has bumped off very nicely to current 1.2875. I think we should see more gains, supported by Cable and EUR/JPY, but the good fact is that ONCE AGAIN TECHS WORKED OUT FINE.

GBP/USD and EUR/JPY at key levels

Cable has broken sub-1.6310 and technically that should cause prices to fall towards uptend line @ 1.5950-1.60, but before that happens, I feel that the bullish MA's cross in the 1hr chart will come into play and send the unit higher. Am saying so because Euro has held above 50EMA 4hr chart @ 1.2850, so outlook is potiive.

EUR/JPY has held the test of the 1hr 200SMA and I believe a new run towards that real maget @ 126.50 should work, as long as the bullish MA's cross remains. Things may just be about to turn...

Intraday market Comment #1 - USD gaining ground

Download audio2_30102008.mp3

Seems like we got techs right. But now we are faced with some conflicting signals, as you'll see in the charts below:

(1) GBP/USD 1hr chart - the unit might break the upper line of the original uptrend channel, but with a bullish 50/200 cross, I find that difficult.

(2) EUR/JPY 1hr chart - the bearish MACD divergence worked wonders as the unit is back to test the 50% retracement of the previous downleg @ 126.30. However, same as with Cable, there is a bullish cross preventing this cross from having further downside potential, rather upside if anything.

(3) USD/CHF - The unit has broken very fast the key downtrend line @ 1.1380, and now faces a tough areain the region 1.1440-80. I'd take shrots there for a pullback (at least) to the broken line.

So, pretty challenging from here, the only thing I can say: take anything light (do not commit a lot of volume with it).

USD/CHF hits key resistance

1.1380 is now the key downtrend line for the pair and it ahs been met, although first attempt has been rejected ans fast pips taken. Stay tuned and follow that line closely for today, because the stock markets are going to be very explosive and crosses should be it as well.

Continuing with EUR/AUD 1hr chart analysis (longer term chart)

I ask you to carefully review the hourly chart below for the cross. It is a chart for the period July (before all the nonsense and wildness started) and October of 2008. The lines you see were drawn back then (I psoted charts those days with those lines in them), and so you get my picture: NEVER REMOVE LINES YOU WILL FIND USEFUL LATER ON!

Those lines, taht seemed long gone are back to let us know the nonsense in this pair is about to be corrected, and that a medium-term target as marked by the lower of the 2 lines look more than reasonable, so help yourself and enjoy the trading.

EUR/AUD or another killer these days (1hr chart)

The swings in this cross have gone beyond any rational extent of my imagiantion. Ranges of 2000 pips are now considered 'normal' and so we find the unit from 2 to 1.90 or back to 2.05 in a matter of hours.

Well, I know some of you guys there would like to give it a try, so I hope my 1hr chart helps. The chart suggests the almost horizontal line (therefore, most reliable) from 1.90 a few days ago is just about to be confirmed broken, so I am expecting the cross lower from here, 1.85 a good target (EUR being lower vs the high yielders like GBP and AUD is what technical charts say). The 50/200 cross is very supportive so help yourself on this one, but this looks good for a move south from here (fast visit to 1.90 should be seen very short-term).

USD/CHF daily chart is saying 'I go to 1.11'

Check the Daily Chart for USD/CHF below.Now we have a very interesting situation here. On the one hand, the MACD is confirming a very nice divergence pointing to the support line around 1.11.

BUT! In the other hand, that blue downtrend line you see, is the big downtrend line off 2002 highs @ 1.6850 that was broken several days ago and that is now being tested as support. Therefore, if the MACD is right and we go to 1.11, we would be invalidating the line break (a 6-yr old downtrend line) and God knows how wild could this get, as the clash of forces could be important. But if the MACD is wrong this time, well, I leave it up to you to decide what's next for the pair. I have to say that this is a very challenging chart, and I look forward to your comments or bets on what we should see coming up. My take? We will see the unit going up eventually, but having that previous line broken (you know, the one acting as dynamic resistance all the way from 1.15 up to 1.18 that caused the current sell-off), today coming in around 1.19, I feel the upside will not be on a straigfht fashion, not to mention some sized declines along the way, even considering the break of the 1.11 line before more upside is seen. But if anyone I've been told by the charts ove rthe last 10 years is that when a very old (big, important) line is tested and broken, no matter how far the retracement goes, it is tested again at one point...

EUR/JPY - shorts around 130+ should be fine for now

Another of the good strategies for today is if we see decent spikes in the benchamrk EUR/JPY cross around/above 130, which should yield some fast pips in my opinion (short).